Will AI raise productivity, and who will gain?
Directly relevant to business strategy and to the jobs graduates apply for.
Side A
Big gains, especially for less experienced workers
AI spreads the know-how of the best workers to everyone else.
Evidence
In a large call-centre study, an AI assistant raised productivity 14% on average and 34% for novices (Brynjolfsson, Li and Raymond, 2025).
Side B
Modest gains, unevenly shared
Only some tasks are affected, and gains may go to capital owners.
Evidence
Daron Acemoglu (2024) estimated AI would raise total productivity by only about 0.7% over ten years.
What to watch
Economy-wide productivity statistics over the next few years, not firm-level case studies.
Where I lean
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